Estonia launches study on future electricity mix and energy investment

A calculation-led approach to Estonia’s next energy choices

Estonia’s business community, energy companies and public institutions have begun a joint study intended to identify the most cost-efficient way to meet the country’s future electricity demand. The initiative, announced on 25 September 2026, will compare different combinations of electricity generation, storage capacity and cross-border connections at several levels of consumption.

The result is expected by the end of February 2027. Its timing is significant: the analysis is designed to give Estonia’s next government a common evidence base for energy-policy decisions after the parliamentary elections, while also offering investors a clearer view of the infrastructure the country may need.

The project is being coordinated by the Estonian Chamber of Commerce and Industry together with companies from the energy and industrial sectors. The participating businesses include Eesti Energia and Enefit, Utilitas, Alexela, Viru Keemia Grupp, Evecon, Baltic Energy Partners, Saare Wind and Fermi Energia. Food producer Maag Food and timber company Lemeks are also involved as electricity consumers.

Comparing technologies on the same basis

The central question is not whether Estonia should choose one single technology. Instead, the study will examine what portfolio of production, storage and international connections works best under different levels of demand, and what investment that portfolio would require.

According to the Chamber’s project description, the analysis is intended to follow principles of intellectual honesty, neutrality and transparency. All technologies are to be assessed using the same basic framework rather than being ranked according to a predetermined political or commercial preference. The organisers also say that the main assumptions, constraints, methodology, results and conclusions will be made public.

That structure is designed to separate technical modelling from the interests of the companies financing the work. The participating firms and electricity-system operator Elering will sit on an advisory council, providing sectoral knowledge and feedback. Decisions about the model’s assumptions, data and methodology will instead be taken by a steering committee representing the state, academia and the Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

The steering committee includes representatives of the Ministry of Climate, the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Industry, the Ministry of Finance, Enterprise Estonia, the Competition Authority, the Estonian Academy of Sciences, Tallinn University of Technology, the Estonian Electrical Power Engineering Society, the Foresight Centre and the Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Why the study matters for industry

Electricity planning has become an increasingly practical business issue. Companies considering new production, processing or digital infrastructure need to understand not only whether enough electricity will be available, but also how generation, storage, network charges and connections will influence long-term costs.

Estonia has recently linked its technology ambitions with the need for a more efficient and resilient energy system. At a business seminar during New York Climate Week, President Alar Karis said that the expansion of artificial intelligence would increase electricity demand and argued that digital development and climate responsibility should be pursued together. He pointed to Estonian companies working in renewable power, grid management, energy storage, solar construction and cleaner urban mobility.

The new study could therefore become relevant beyond the electricity sector. Its findings may influence the conditions for data centres, manufacturing, electrified transport, renewable-energy projects and storage facilities. A transparent model may also help companies compare investment options and understand which infrastructure bottlenecks need to be addressed first.

Two analytical tracks are moving forward

The industry-backed project is not the only electricity-system analysis under way in Estonia. Elering and Tallinn University of Technology are preparing a separate study of energy-system scenarios through 2050. That work is expected to examine how different technology and policy choices could affect electricity prices, system reliability, network investment and balancing costs.

The two projects have different horizons and institutional arrangements, but they address a similar challenge: how to make long-term energy decisions in a way that can be tested against demand, cost and infrastructure realities. The shorter study is expected to deliver its conclusions in February 2027, while the Elering-led work is planned to continue through the end of 2027.

For Estonia, the immediate value of the new initiative will lie less in predicting one definitive future than in making the trade-offs visible. By publishing the model and its assumptions, the organisers are promising a basis for discussion that businesses, researchers, policymakers and consumers can examine together.