Brexit deal annotated ⋆ The Baltic Review

kermelen

“Brexit deal annotated”

There is no Brexit deal, not yet. Yes- the negotiation was not terminated in December 2017 and it will move to Future relationships in February 2018. I can understand the relief but be aware phase one was the easy part, so please don’t sell the bearskin before it was shot down.

But this anticipation is still interesting. It tells a lot about what happened the last few weeks. How much Britain was in need to learn about the EU and to finally adapt to the reality. The irony is that it had to leave it in order to start understanding it.

And when you see Mr Gove and Mr Johnson congratulating Mrs May for her success in the Brexit negotiation you can only pinch yourself to make sure you are not daydreaming.

Fortunately, it was said that ridicule doesn’t kill.

Posted on 12/8/17 | 4:57 PM CET

tony

Interesting but hugely complex. it all illustrates that there was a lot happening behind the scenes.

There is a lot of ambiguity and some of the clauses appear to mean not very much or are contradictory. I do not know if our European friends understand the phase ‘weasel’ words? basically that means words are used than can mean whatever the person reading them wants them to mean!

Interesting to see our capital in the EIB will be refunded to us.

As regards EU citizens rights, the final payment etc I suspect the lawyers will be arguing over this for months. I will have to wait until I and the experts have digested all this and can give a clear guide as to what it means to everyone

Posted on 12/8/17 | 4:58 PM CET

Steuersklave

@ kermelen

‘And when you see Mr Gove and Mr Johnson congratulating Mrs May for her success in the Brexit negotiation you can only pinch yourself to make sure you are not daydreaming. ‘

You do realise that the UK’s fallback position is access to the EU single market without freedom of movement, without annual fees, and without the jurisdiction of the ECJ. How is that supposed to be a victory for the EU?

Posted on 12/8/17 | 5:00 PM CET

kermelen

@ tony

” I do not know if our European friends understand the phase ‘weasel’ words? basically that means words are used than can mean whatever the person reading them wants them to mean!”.

Believe me, they do understand that. They have a very long practice of it. They could teach it to the world. But at the bottom of it, you are absolutely correct: there is no Brexit deal yet. The road to the finish line is still long and difficult. But we are soon entering the Holidays season and we are now able to finish this year of 2017 in free weel. Thank you, Santa.

Posted on 12/8/17 | 5:09 PM CET

Jack Boot

Sounds reasonable enough, its a ‘done deal’.

96. Nothings agreed until its all agreed. And a transitional agreement to be agreed in 2018.

Posted on 12/8/17 | 5:12 PM CET

kermelen

@ Steuersklave

“How is that supposed to be a victory for the EU?”

The EU never was at war with the UK. If not being ousted from the Article 50 negotiation 8 months after it was started is a “victory to you cheers! And have another pint on my account if you please. But if you are still expecting cherry picking Brexit then you are on your way to a severe disappointment – next year.

Posted on 12/8/17 | 5:15 PM CET

kermelen

@ Jack Boot

“96. Nothings agreed until its all agreed. And a transitional agreement to be agreed in 2018.”

Precisely: it’s not a done deal.

Posted on 12/8/17 | 5:17 PM CET

Paul N.

@ tony
You can be sure that on the EU side lawyers were involved in the formulation and checking of the text of the report.
@ steursklave
Sorry, what fall back position with access to the EU single market? WTO?

Posted on 12/8/17 | 5:20 PM CET

PeterM

@Kermelen
“The irony is that it had to leave it in order to start understanding it.”

How patronising, and deluded. ! I believe that on the whole it is the rest of Europe that has not yet realised that the EU has little future, and fails to understand that its political objectives are not shared by the vast majority of people. You will understand in time however.

Posted on 12/8/17 | 5:25 PM CET

YellowSubmarine

Not bad, not bad at all.

UK bill to be paid in £’s based on about £39 billion today. UK exchange rate is more likley to go up than down versus Euro so that bill will reduce further for UK. No long term involvement for ECJ, NO continued annual payments, unless UK decides to contribute in specific areas, as part of a new deal. Money back from Euro bank.

A good basis to start building a close and special trade arrangement.

Even bbc are struggling to find something wrong with this, so it mist be OK …

Posted on 12/8/17 | 5:32 PM CET

Saintixe

@tony

Interesting to see our capital in the EIB will be refunded to us.

Not interesting , rather totally fair.Britain loaned money via the EIB. It is but logical it gets it back…when the money is recovered … eventually…

Posted on 12/8/17 | 5:44 PM CET

tony

Keremelen

‘Weasel’ words have a very long history. This segment is taken from the book ‘Alice In Wonderland and describes much of the wording used in the document

“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean- neither more nor less.”

“The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.”

“The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master-that’s all.”

Alice was too much puzzled to say anything; so after a minute Humpty Dumpty began again. “They’ve a temper some of them- particularly verbs: they’re the proudest- adjectives you can do anything with, but not verbs- however, I can manage the whole lot of them! Impenetrability! That’s what I say!”

I was interested to read somewhere that being a lawyer was the most likely route to become a politician.

Posted on 12/8/17 | 5:51 PM CET

Blackforestman

49.
“The big one. Theresa May has agreed a diplomatic backstop which promises to keep Northern Ireland “full aligned” with the EU if all else fails — the consequences of which are profound.”

It’s a totally empty promise. This backstop is inexistent because “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”. This means if anything fails, then this “backstop” is also not agreed, too.

This backstop is worth nothing, it’s meaningless if you consider the greater context. It seems to be smoke and mirrors.

Posted on 12/8/17 | 5:58 PM CET

xyc

@Steuersklave – You do realise that the UK’s fallback position is access to the EU single market without freedom of movement, without annual fees, and without the jurisdiction of the ECJ. How is that supposed to be a victory for the EU?

Your ability to try and spin anything into a bag of wonders is unbelievable. There s nothing in there that grants internal access to the SM as you describe. Far from it. UK is paying its annual contributions until 2020 as part of status quo, yet wont actually get all the benefits in return, given the 50-60 FTAs the EU holds only apply to EU members, so 29/03/19, this access ends for starters. Any idea that during an extended transition the EU would grant the UK status quo access with no contribution is fanciful, even Farage would not dare promise that one.

Posted on 12/8/17 | 6:10 PM CET

Elena adaal

Very good deal.

Its tempting to view this through the us-vs-them prism, but when you take a step backwards, this is good news all around, specifically because:

1. No hard border under any circumstance. Good Friday Agreement, Common Travel Area, North-south (and East-West) cooperation are all saved. Even the current EU/UK programmes (PEACE and INTERREG) remain in peace. The UK recognises the EU membership of Ireland, and SM and CU membership that is part of it.
2. Rights of EU citizens in the Uk and UK citizens in the EU are protected, not totally but to a large extent.
3. Financial settlement is well taken care of, but this was in the end never the problem.

All in all very good news for the EU and the UK. Especially because of the ‘regulatory alighnment’ between Ireland and Northern Ireland – and consequently the whole of the UK – that kicks in in the absence of a phase 2 deal, this will mean a relatively soft Brexit that saves everybody a lot of money.

It looks like relations and interactions between UK and EU can go back to more normal levels

Posted on 12/8/17 | 6:17 PM CET

Defenestrater

@Steuersklave
The 4 freedoms are inseperable. By this stage there shouldnt be any doubts about that.

Posted on 12/8/17 | 6:33 PM CET

Helghart

@Blackforestman

No, #49 is not an empty threat.
Sure, nothing stops the UK to rip up the entire thing and walk out, now or in the next 15 months. But this is as meaningful a statement as saying that nothing stops Putin from invading Latvia or nothing stops the North Koreans from sending a rocket to Tokyo.
This agreement is important as it defines where the negotiations stand after more than a year – and any major divergence from this has the same diplomatic and political implications as Putin invading Latvia or North Korea committing suicide.

And in this very sense, #49 and #50 ARE important. They prohibit the “having the cake and eat it too” strategy that some Brexiteers had hoped for. But, interestingly enough, after Monday’s clash between May and DUP: They do not prevent the sea border between rest UK and NI. #50 simply states that NI will have the final say on whether they want that or not.

Posted on 12/8/17 | 6:54 PM CET

Helghart

Btw, I never thought I would take such a deep dive into NI parliamentary knowledge, but as to #50 of the agreement: If NI’s assembly has the power to decide whether to stay with rest UK or rather stay in the SM/CU and thereby open a sea border, can anyone from NI enlighten me what the power situation is in Belfast? Looks like unionist and Irish nationalists have exactly 39 seats each (DUP+UUP=TUV vs SF+SDLP) which suggests that the Alliance and the green Party and that one Trotskyist could make the decision? Or is there a minority veto right as part of the power sharing agreement? And if the latter who can block whom…the nationalists from being forced to the UK, or the unionist from being forced to a sea border with the UK?

Posted on 12/8/17 | 7:09 PM CET

Helghart

Lastly, Sklave, you were -once again- wrong as to the tension any deal would create on Ireland. You suggested that the tension would be in the ROI but the agreement today shows that May herself moved the tension right onto NI: She empowered the NI assembly to say no to Westminster. After her stealth attempt to get exactly that result last Monday, you cannot help but feel for the DUPsters (or is that Dupe-sterrs?): London is willing to throw them under the bus, in order to escape the EU.

Posted on 12/8/17 | 7:13 PM CET