Thank you Baltic Review for an interesting article (Latgale People’s Republic – New separatist Russian region in the Baltics?) about the possibility of a Russian-oriented break away republic in eastern Latvia.
Putin’s adventures in Ukraine is just a preparation for his main ambition: the Baltics
However an interesting theory in the light of what is happening in Donbass, this is not was Putin has in mind for the Baltic states.
But that doesn’t mean he lacks ambition for controlling the Baltics. On the contrary, his adventures in Ukraine is just a preparation for his main ambition: the Baltics becoming vassal states in Putin’s new empire.
When Putin finally has taken control over the whole Donbass region it will be after a number of ceasefires and peace talks, in order to minimize damage with regard to sanctions.
Then Putin’s proxies will hold a referendum after which Russia will annex the territory as the new federal russian republic of Novorossiya.
Putin will now have an immensely strong patriotic wave sweeping all over Russia and prorussian societies in neighbouring countries.
This is the time for Putin’s ambitions in the Baltics. The Baltic states’ NATO-memberships forces him to adress the issue differently here than with Ukraine.
He needs to grasp all the territory he wants in a blitz-attack after provoking a conflict on ethnic grounds.
This will be an easy task considering for instance the unfair language regulations in the region.
Before NATO has been given the time to react, russian tanks has rolled into Tallin and Riga and surrounded all military bases in Estonia and Latvia.
Putin has by then already announced that he wants to negotiate, displaying willingness of backing a few steps.
Lithuania, sandwiched between russian troops in Latvia and the Kaliningrad enclave, will face an ultimatum of staying out of the conflict or meeting the same destiny.
Poland will face an ultimatum of staying out of the conflict or becoming the only front state in the third world war (in the war alternative Lithuania will be occupied regardless how they answer their own ultimatum).
Germany will be reminded about the Iskander robots in Kaliningrad that can reach Berlin and that will do so if need arises.
The calculation is that NATO, having no frontline in the war because their easternmost members are paralyzed by russian ultimatums, will succumb to negotiations.
I hope the Baltic Review finds the scenario I’m pointing at here interesting when researching on the subject.
Johan Berggren (Nyköping, Sweden)